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The threat of
nuclear weapons has been a fact of life on earth since the second
half of the 20th century. The size of nuclear arsenals worldwide
peaked at more than 35,000 ware heads in the 1980s and remains at
approximately 27,000 ware heads today, including strategic and
tactical weapons. The sophistication of the science and the
political dependence on the doctrine of deterrence, the threat of
"mutually assured destruction" as a strategy for security have both
increased steadily since 1945. In the year, the US dropped nuclear
bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki: World War II ended and the Cold War
began.
Today the Cold War
has officially ended, through its doctrines still shape
international politics. Relationship among countries, regional
conflicts, and even some local conflicts continue to reflect the
Cold War struggle, in which allegiances were forged through
conventional military aid and promises of protection under the
nuclear umbrella of one superpower or the other.
The tendency to
resort to violence has not lessened in the first years of the 21st
century, as exemplified by the war against Iraq and ongoing
conflicts in Africa and parts of Asia. The capacity for violence,
however, has increased exponentially in the form of massive
stockpiles of nuclear weapons and nuclear materials, continues
military preparation and training for the use of nuclear weapons,
and state policies that rely on nuclear deterrence for the
indefinite future. The nature of the nuclear threat today has many
elements.
The
United States has an estimated 7,000 operational strategic nuclear
weapons. Russia has almost 6,000.
France
has approximately 450 nuclear weapons in its operational stockpile;
Britain approximately 185. China is thought to maintain an arsenal
of about 400 warheads.
India
and Pakistan tested nuclear weapons and declared themselves nuclear
weapon states in May 1998; both countries have continued to develop
and test missile delivery systems.
Israel
is assumed to have about 200 nuclear weapons.
The
DPRK (North Korea) tested nuclear weapons, declared itself a nuclear
weapon state, and withdrew from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
in January2001.
Iran is
actively pursuing a uranium uranium enrichment program that asserts
is for commercial nuclear energy industry but that has led to global
anxiety about its intentions with regard to nuclear weapons
development.
More
than 40 states have the capability to develop nuclear weapons
because they possess nuclear power reactors and /or nuclear research
reactors.
Despite
the end of the Cold War, some 5000 nuclear weapons are on
hair-trigger alert, ready to be launched on a few minutes notice.
Thousands more could be developed in a short time.
A
typical modern 150 kiloton hydrogen bomb could cause somewhere
between 736,000 and 8,660,000 deaths, depending on the population
density of the target city.
Nuclear
weapons do not stand alone as weapons of mass destruction. The
nuclear capability of some states is the excuse used by others to
develop or maintain biological and chemical weapons. Thus nuclear
weapons exacerbate the overall threat to our global survival.
The
number of countries with nuclear weapons capability, knowledge, or
ambition will continue to grow unless governments and civil society
commit themselves to policies and actions that will overcome the
current nuclear weapons impasse.
Fissile
materials (plutonium and highly enriched uranium) needed to produce
and maintain weapons are not being controlled or accounted for
effectively, and efforts to cut off the production of fissile
materials are still embryonic.
The
health and environmental consequences of nuclear weapons production
and testing including deaths, cancers, illnesses and
ever-accumulating toxic and radioactive waste. The long term effects
of radiation on individuals, future generations, or the planet are
not fully understand.
Arms
control and disarmament progress has come to a virtual standstill
despite a universal obligation to pursue and conclude complete
nuclear disarmament.
From Nuclear Non-Proliferation to
Nuclear Abolition
The current
international security regime relies on the Non-proliferation Treaty
to contain the threat of nuclear disarmament. The NPT originated in
1968, came into force in 1970, and has kept proliferation generally
contained across states 9horizontal proliferation), although within
some states arsenals have grown dramatically (vertical
proliferation).
The NPT recognized
a "nuclear weapon state" as one that had manufactured and exploded a
nuclear weapon or nuclear explosive device prior to 1st January
1967. According to this definition, only weapon states. These five
states are also the five permanent members of the Security Council
the UN body authorized to identify threats to international peace
and to enforce and maintain peace. In other words, the states with
the most military power also have the most authority under the
current international legal system.
The NPT regime
includes the procedures and bodies that enforce it, such as the
international Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The IAEA has extensive
experience with the technology and mechanisms necessary for nuclear
disarmament ant its verification and recent development serve to
strengthen safeguards by improving the type of information gathered
and the quality of analysis applied to it. However the dual nature
of the mission of the IAEA-preventing diversion of nuclear material
to weapons purposes while promoting nuclear energy weakens its
effectiveness as an agency for the enforcement of non-proliferation.
Moreover, the military facilities of the nuclear weapon states are
not covered by safeguards on a voluntary basis. In contrast, the
non-nuclear weapon states are expected to submit to full scope
safeguards system perpetuates the discriminatory nature of the NPT.
The cracks in the
NPT regime have become increasingly obvious. The DPRK Libya, and
Iraq are known to have pursued nuclear weapons technology in recent
years, and the DPRK has joined the ranks of the nuclear weapon
states. India and Pakistan, who have refused to sign the NPT, both
tested nuclear weapons in 1998, publicly rejecting the NPT regime.
Israel is estimated to have up to 200 nuclear weapons. The material
and skill to develop nuclear weapons are becoming increasingly
difficult weaken further unless an international efforts is made to
halt and reverse current trends. Nuclear proliferation will remain a
risk as long as any states claim the right to possess nuclear
weapons.
A Varity of
efforts across states, industries, institutions, and
non-governmental channels is necessary if there is to be reversal of
nuclear proliferation and the possibility of nuclear abolition. For
this reason, IPPNW has taken a range of different approaches to
address the nuclear threat under the rubric of the international
Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), including research and
education, physician dialogues with decision makers, and grassroots
action.
Source:
Peace Now –January-2008 |